It’s Patrick Corbin day, which means we’re again targeting him going Over his hits allowed total as one of our favorite MLB player prop picks. In addition to the struggling lefty, we’re eyeing a pair of total bases props in a packed slate of games.
It’s a fully loaded day of action on the diamond with 16 games on the MLB schedule. That means there is a cornucopia of options in the player prop market.
Today, we start with one of our favorite fades going, as poor Patrick Corbin takes the ball against the Pirates. Then, we take a look at a pair of total bases props for a couple of undervalued hitters who are tearing the cover off the ball in June.
Check out our MLB player prop picks for Tuesday, June 28, as we bank on some of baseball’s best to do their thing.
MLB props for June 28
Picks made on 6/28/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Rotten to the Corbin
Washington Nationals starter Patrick Corbin might be at the top of our favorite fade list at the moment. And while you might think a matchup with the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates could deter us from fading him, you couldn’t be more wrong.
Corbin is basically the MLB’s most expensive innings eater at this point in his career. He’s mostly been a disaster since signing his big contract with the Nats — other than a solid debut campaign in 2019 — but 2022 is shaping up to be his worst season yet. The lefty has an ugly expected ERA of 6.47 and is surrendering a .317 expected batting average to opponents and has allowed more hits than any other pitcher in baseball this season.
Despite his cringeworthy pitching, we are getting a good number for his hits allowed prop. After several starts of it sitting at 6.5, tonight we’re getting it a 5.5. Probably because he’s facing the Buccos.
Yes, the Pirates aren’t a great hitting team, but neither are the Orioles or the Reds. And they are part of this stretch of games where Corbin has allowed six, eight, seven, 12, nine, seven, eight, and seven hits in his last eight starts, respectively.
The other thing to like about this bet is that Washington generally leaves Corbin in the game even if he is struggling, as he averages just under five innings per start.
Corbin has been the gift that keeps on giving for baseball bettors and it won’t stop tonight.
Patrick Corbin prop: Over 5.5 hits allowed (-105)
Covers MLB betting analysis
Kirk can’t be stopped
MLB fans are definitely taking notice that Toronto Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk isn’t just having a breakout season, but is quickly becoming one of the best hitters in baseball.
The latest All-Star ballot voting update had Kirk more than a million votes clear of the Yankees Jose Trevino. And why not? The guy is on an absolute tear.
Kirk is now hitting .322 for the season with a .936 OPS and he’s taken that to the next level in June. Kirk’s average is up to .351 this month and over the last six games, it’s .435. He also has 11 extra-base hits in June helping him go Over 1.5 total bases 13 times in 20 starts.
But sportsbooks haven’t seemed to notice too much because Kirk is still regularly getting solid plus money on his total bases prop, including +120 today when he’ll face off against Michael Wacha and the Boston Red Sox.
While the right-hander owns a 2.34 ERA, he’s been a bit lucky. His 4.43 expected ERA and .274 expected batting average to opponents show a more mediocre pitcher. And he’s certainly not a guy you would bank on to shut down the red-hot Kirk.
Bank on Kirk to keep hitting against Wacha and an undermanned Red Sox bullpen.
Alejandro Kirk prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Not so mini Cooper
OK, guys. We’ve found another hot hitter who sportsbooks haven’t identified yet and that is Miami Marlins first baseman Garrett Cooper.
We bet Cooper to go Over his total bases last night at +140 and he cashed in getting three hits in the Marlins loss. So, it was a surprise to see his total bases as high as +135 for tonight’s second game against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Cooper is having a breakout campaign in his age-31 season thanks in large part to playing every day. He’s hitting .316 with a .845 OPS, but he’s especially been tearing the cover off the ball this month, hitting .386 with a .952 OPS in June.
Another reason to like Cooper as a total bases candidate is that he’s a doubles machine, whacking 17 on the season. And he’ll look to stay hot when he digs in against Cardinals starter Dakota Hudson.
The Cards’ right-hander has been the definition of average this season with an expected batting average of 4.80 while surrendering a .284 expected batting average to opponents.
While Cooper only has two career at-bats against Hudson, he is 1-for-2 and is otherwise hitting an impressive .328 when facing right-handers this season. The value on Cooper’s total bases prop is too good to pass up once again.
Garrett Cooper prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135)
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